Scholastic on Book Six: “Summer of 2005…more likely summer 2006.”

Financial advisor Smith Barney Citigroup recently downgraded the Scholastic(SCHL) stock from “buy” to “hold” citing concerns about the companies continuites business and worries about the government’s “do not call” registry affecting Scholastic business. Recommending that investors treat the stock like those of toy companies and movie studios with the goal of timing investments around successful product launches, research analyst William Bird said:
“For Scholastic, that catalyst is Harry Potter and Bird thinks the stock could enjoy “meaningful upside” 18 months out when the market may begin to discount the potential launch of the next book. He thinks the sequel is likely to be published in the summer of 2005 at the earliest but more likely in the summer of 2006.”

But all this report means is that the Scholastic brass is where we are: wondering when the book is coming. No one knows until J.K. Rowling says so, and that to all of our knowledge has not happened yet.